The Failed Attempt to Stage UN Climate Summit Appears Chaotic – Yet It May In Fact Be the Best Result Achievable

Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.