Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The average figure of daily killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government figures. But, security specialists have warned that murder figures might not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Significant Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the least number of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly militarised operations to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that using murder data to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it may hide days when there were particularly high numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these actions, Mexico is still beset by high bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to show their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst concluded.